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DCF valuation

What is Latham Group, Inc. worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Latham Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $5.01 per share. The share price was $6.25 on September 25, 2026, 25% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$38M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$32.8M
Cash
$43.5M
balance sheet of June 27, 2026
Debt
$279.8M
balance sheet of June 27, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
119,822,088
Revenue growth per year, last 4 years
7.9%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear3.0%2.5%2.0%10.0%$2.31-63%
Base8.0%5.5%2.5%9.0%$5.01-20%
Bull13.0%8.0%3.0%8.0%$10.04+61%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$6.97$7.58$8.31$9.24$10.42
8.0%$5.51$5.90$6.36$6.91$7.59
9.0%$4.43$4.70$5.01$5.37$5.79
10.0%$3.62$3.81$4.02$4.27$4.55
11.0%$2.98$3.12$3.27$3.45$3.65

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Latham Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (7.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Latham Group, Inc. company page