What is Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $20,900.26 per share. The share price was $14.26 on September 25, 2026, 100% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -10.0% | 10.0% | $13,415.89 | +93,981% |
| Base | -5.0% | 9.0% | $20,900.26 | +146,466% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 8.0% | $34,852.47 | +244,307% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $25,880.73 | $27,345.62 | $29,136.05 | $31,374.08 | $34,251.55 |
| 8.0% | $22,206.67 | $23,156.65 | $24,279.36 | $25,626.60 | $27,273.23 |
| 9.0% | $19,501.28 | $20,150.81 | $20,900.26 | $21,774.62 | $22,807.95 |
| 10.0% | $17,423.36 | $17,885.26 | $18,408.75 | $19,007.02 | $19,697.34 |
| 11.0% | $15,775.31 | $16,113.94 | $16,492.40 | $16,918.17 | $17,400.71 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-13.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions