What is Smurfit Westrock plc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Smurfit Westrock plc's reported free cash flow gives $49.73 per share. The share price was $46.41 on September 25, 2026, 7% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $20.16 | -57% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $49.73 | +7% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $104.81 | +126% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $72.13 | $79.11 | $87.64 | $98.31 | $112.03 |
| 8.0% | $55.31 | $59.83 | $65.18 | $71.61 | $79.45 |
| 9.0% | $43.07 | $46.16 | $49.73 | $53.90 | $58.83 |
| 10.0% | $33.79 | $35.99 | $38.48 | $41.33 | $44.62 |
| 11.0% | $26.52 | $28.14 | $29.94 | $31.97 | $34.27 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Smurfit Westrock plc's revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (32.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions