What is Smurfit Westrock plc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Smurfit Westrock plc's reported free cash flow gives $50.04 per share. The share price was $44.36 on November 10, 2026, 11% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $20.46 | -54% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $50.04 | +13% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $105.11 | +137% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $72.43 | $79.42 | $87.95 | $98.62 | $112.33 |
| 8.0% | $55.61 | $60.14 | $65.49 | $71.91 | $79.76 |
| 9.0% | $43.37 | $46.47 | $50.04 | $54.21 | $59.13 |
| 10.0% | $34.09 | $36.29 | $38.79 | $41.64 | $44.93 |
| 11.0% | $26.83 | $28.44 | $30.25 | $32.28 | $34.58 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Smurfit Westrock plc's revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (32.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions