What is Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $19.39 per share. The share price was $28.75 on November 10, 2026, 48% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 1.5% | 10.0% | $13.29 | -54% |
| Base | 6.5% | 9.0% | $19.39 | -33% |
| Bull | 11.5% | 8.0% | $31.55 | +10% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $23.89 | $25.27 | $26.95 | $29.05 | $31.75 |
| 8.0% | $20.53 | $21.42 | $22.48 | $23.74 | $25.29 |
| 9.0% | $18.07 | $18.68 | $19.39 | $20.21 | $21.18 |
| 10.0% | $16.20 | $16.63 | $17.13 | $17.69 | $18.34 |
| 11.0% | $14.73 | $15.05 | $15.40 | $15.80 | $16.25 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Supernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (6.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions