What is Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $391.13 per share. The share price was $289.56 on November 10, 2026, 26% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $239.19 | -17% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $391.13 | +35% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $674.04 | +133% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $506.16 | $542.03 | $585.87 | $640.67 | $711.12 |
| 8.0% | $419.75 | $443.01 | $470.50 | $503.48 | $543.80 |
| 9.0% | $356.87 | $372.78 | $391.13 | $412.54 | $437.84 |
| 10.0% | $309.20 | $320.51 | $333.33 | $347.98 | $364.88 |
| 11.0% | $271.90 | $280.19 | $289.45 | $299.88 | $311.69 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (15.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions