What is Stoke Therapeutics, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $26.92 per share. The share price was $24.80 on September 25, 2026, 8% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $17.08 | -31% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $26.92 | +9% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $45.23 | +82% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $34.36 | $36.68 | $39.52 | $43.07 | $47.63 |
| 8.0% | $28.77 | $30.27 | $32.05 | $34.19 | $36.80 |
| 9.0% | $24.70 | $25.73 | $26.92 | $28.30 | $29.94 |
| 10.0% | $21.61 | $22.35 | $23.18 | $24.12 | $25.22 |
| 11.0% | $19.20 | $19.74 | $20.34 | $21.01 | $21.78 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Stoke Therapeutics, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (145.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions