What is Steel Dynamics Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Steel Dynamics Inc's reported free cash flow gives $77.05 per share. The share price was $233.66 on September 25, 2026, 203% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.5% | 10.0% | $38.33 | -84% |
| Base | 13.5% | 9.0% | $77.05 | -67% |
| Bull | 18.5% | 8.0% | $154.19 | -34% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $106.84 | $116.09 | $127.39 | $141.52 | $159.69 |
| 8.0% | $84.49 | $90.49 | $97.58 | $106.09 | $116.48 |
| 9.0% | $68.22 | $72.32 | $77.05 | $82.57 | $89.10 |
| 10.0% | $55.87 | $58.79 | $62.09 | $65.87 | $70.23 |
| 11.0% | $46.20 | $48.34 | $50.73 | $53.42 | $56.46 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Steel Dynamics Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions