What is STAG Industrial, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on STAG Industrial, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $20.70 per share. The share price was $36.79 on September 25, 2026, 78% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $6.36 | -83% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $20.70 | -44% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $49.28 | +34% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $31.64 | $35.02 | $39.15 | $44.32 | $50.96 |
| 8.0% | $23.45 | $25.64 | $28.23 | $31.34 | $35.14 |
| 9.0% | $17.48 | $18.97 | $20.70 | $22.72 | $25.11 |
| 10.0% | $12.94 | $14.01 | $15.21 | $16.59 | $18.19 |
| 11.0% | $9.38 | $10.17 | $11.04 | $12.02 | $13.14 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at STAG Industrial, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions