What is Shutterstock, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Shutterstock, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $71.22 per share.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.0% | 10.0% | $42.22 | - |
| Base | 8.0% | 9.0% | $71.22 | - |
| Bull | 13.0% | 8.0% | $125.33 | - |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $92.35 | $98.84 | $106.76 | $116.67 | $129.40 |
| 8.0% | $76.56 | $80.76 | $85.73 | $91.69 | $98.98 |
| 9.0% | $65.03 | $67.90 | $71.22 | $75.09 | $79.66 |
| 10.0% | $56.25 | $58.30 | $60.61 | $63.26 | $66.32 |
| 11.0% | $49.36 | $50.86 | $52.53 | $54.42 | $56.55 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Shutterstock, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions