What is Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $214.11 per share. The share price was $201.95 on November 10, 2026, 6% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $132.30 | -34% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $214.11 | +6% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $366.56 | +82% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $275.41 | $294.45 | $317.71 | $346.79 | $384.18 |
| 8.0% | $229.42 | $241.77 | $256.36 | $273.86 | $295.26 |
| 9.0% | $195.93 | $204.37 | $214.11 | $225.47 | $238.90 |
| 10.0% | $170.51 | $176.51 | $183.32 | $191.09 | $200.06 |
| 11.0% | $150.60 | $155.00 | $159.92 | $165.45 | $171.72 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions