What is Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $213.05 per share. The share price was $176.55 on September 25, 2026, 17% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $131.24 | -26% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $213.05 | +21% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $365.50 | +107% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $274.35 | $293.39 | $316.65 | $345.73 | $383.12 |
| 8.0% | $228.36 | $240.70 | $255.29 | $272.80 | $294.19 |
| 9.0% | $194.87 | $203.31 | $213.05 | $224.41 | $237.84 |
| 10.0% | $169.45 | $175.45 | $182.25 | $190.03 | $199.00 |
| 11.0% | $149.54 | $153.94 | $158.86 | $164.39 | $170.66 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions