What is 1ST Source Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on 1ST Source Corp's reported free cash flow gives $233.19 per share. The share price was $86.09 on September 25, 2026, 63% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $144.45 | +68% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $233.19 | +171% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $398.67 | +363% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $298.98 | $319.31 | $344.16 | $375.23 | $415.17 |
| 8.0% | $249.69 | $262.88 | $278.46 | $297.16 | $320.02 |
| 9.0% | $213.77 | $222.79 | $233.19 | $245.33 | $259.67 |
| 10.0% | $186.48 | $192.89 | $200.16 | $208.46 | $218.04 |
| 11.0% | $165.08 | $169.78 | $175.03 | $180.94 | $187.64 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at 1ST Source Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 2 fiscal years (10.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions