What is Sps Commerce Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Sps Commerce Inc's reported free cash flow gives $136.47 per share. The share price was $80.71 on November 10, 2026, 41% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $84.50 | +5% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $136.47 | +69% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $233.22 | +189% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $175.80 | $188.07 | $203.06 | $221.80 | $245.90 |
| 8.0% | $146.25 | $154.21 | $163.61 | $174.89 | $188.68 |
| 9.0% | $124.75 | $130.19 | $136.47 | $143.79 | $152.44 |
| 10.0% | $108.45 | $112.31 | $116.70 | $121.71 | $127.49 |
| 11.0% | $95.69 | $98.52 | $101.69 | $105.26 | $109.30 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Sps Commerce Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (19.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions