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DCF valuation

What is Suburban Propane Partners LP worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Suburban Propane Partners LP's reported free cash flow gives $14.23 per share. The share price was $16.62 on September 25, 2026, 17% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$114.3M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$153.7M
Cash
$5M
balance sheet of June 27, 2026
Debt
$1.22B
balance sheet of June 27, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
65,589,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
5.3%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear0.5%1.5%2.0%10.0%$1.96-88%
Base5.5%4.0%2.5%9.0%$14.23-14%
Bull10.5%7.0%3.0%8.0%$38.68+133%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$23.23$25.97$29.32$33.50$38.89
8.0%$16.52$18.29$20.39$22.91$25.99
9.0%$11.61$12.82$14.23$15.86$17.79
10.0%$7.87$8.73$9.71$10.83$12.12
11.0%$4.93$5.56$6.27$7.06$7.97

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Suburban Propane Partners LP's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

Suburban Propane Partners LP company page