What is Snowflake Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Snowflake Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $114.73 per share. The share price was $335.94 on September 25, 2026, 193% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $71.70 | -79% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $114.73 | -66% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $194.87 | -42% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $147.32 | $157.48 | $169.89 | $185.42 | $205.37 |
| 8.0% | $122.84 | $129.43 | $137.21 | $146.56 | $157.98 |
| 9.0% | $105.03 | $109.54 | $114.73 | $120.80 | $127.96 |
| 10.0% | $91.53 | $94.73 | $98.36 | $102.51 | $107.30 |
| 11.0% | $80.96 | $83.31 | $85.93 | $88.89 | $92.23 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Snowflake Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (51.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions