What is Semtech Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Semtech Corp's reported free cash flow gives $49.25 per share. The share price was $182.30 on September 25, 2026, 270% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $29.13 | -84% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $49.25 | -73% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $89.32 | -51% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $64.58 | $69.32 | $75.11 | $82.36 | $91.67 |
| 8.0% | $53.09 | $56.17 | $59.80 | $64.16 | $69.49 |
| 9.0% | $44.72 | $46.82 | $49.25 | $52.08 | $55.42 |
| 10.0% | $38.36 | $39.86 | $41.55 | $43.49 | $45.72 |
| 11.0% | $33.38 | $34.47 | $35.70 | $37.07 | $38.64 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Semtech Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions