What is Skywest Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Skywest Inc's reported free cash flow gives $630.73 per share. The share price was $102.29 on September 25, 2026, 84% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $362.72 | +255% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $630.73 | +517% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $1,129.97 | +1,005% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $832.61 | $895.43 | $972.21 | $1,068.18 | $1,191.57 |
| 8.0% | $681.06 | $721.79 | $769.94 | $827.71 | $898.32 |
| 9.0% | $570.74 | $598.60 | $630.73 | $668.23 | $712.54 |
| 10.0% | $487.06 | $506.86 | $529.31 | $554.97 | $584.57 |
| 11.0% | $421.54 | $436.06 | $452.29 | $470.55 | $491.24 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Skywest Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions