What is Skywest Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Skywest Inc's reported free cash flow gives $628.85 per share. The share price was $83.76 on November 10, 2026, 87% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $360.84 | +331% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $628.85 | +651% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $1,128.08 | +1,247% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $830.73 | $893.55 | $970.32 | $1,066.29 | $1,189.68 |
| 8.0% | $679.17 | $719.91 | $768.05 | $825.82 | $896.43 |
| 9.0% | $568.86 | $596.71 | $628.85 | $666.34 | $710.65 |
| 10.0% | $485.17 | $504.98 | $527.43 | $553.08 | $582.68 |
| 11.0% | $419.66 | $434.18 | $450.41 | $468.66 | $489.36 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Skywest Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions