What is Champion Homes, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Champion Homes, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $156.90 per share. The share price was $87.72 on September 25, 2026, 44% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.5% | 10.0% | $102.20 | +17% |
| Base | 13.5% | 9.0% | $156.90 | +79% |
| Bull | 18.5% | 8.0% | $265.88 | +203% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $198.98 | $212.05 | $228.02 | $247.98 | $273.65 |
| 8.0% | $167.41 | $175.88 | $185.90 | $197.92 | $212.60 |
| 9.0% | $144.42 | $150.22 | $156.90 | $164.70 | $173.92 |
| 10.0% | $126.98 | $131.10 | $135.77 | $141.10 | $147.26 |
| 11.0% | $113.31 | $116.33 | $119.71 | $123.51 | $127.81 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Champion Homes, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.4% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions