What is Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $323.42 per share. The share price was $54.78 on September 25, 2026, 83% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $198.57 | +262% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $323.42 | +490% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $555.90 | +915% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $417.95 | $447.42 | $483.45 | $528.48 | $586.37 |
| 8.0% | $346.94 | $366.05 | $388.64 | $415.75 | $448.88 |
| 9.0% | $295.27 | $308.34 | $323.42 | $341.01 | $361.80 |
| 10.0% | $256.10 | $265.39 | $275.92 | $287.96 | $301.85 |
| 11.0% | $225.44 | $232.26 | $239.87 | $248.44 | $258.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (37.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions