What is SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $136.44 per share. The share price was $91.31 on September 25, 2026, 33% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.5% | 10.0% | $80.81 | -12% |
| Base | 11.5% | 9.0% | $136.44 | +49% |
| Bull | 16.5% | 8.0% | $247.32 | +171% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $178.77 | $191.85 | $207.85 | $227.84 | $253.55 |
| 8.0% | $147.06 | $155.54 | $165.57 | $177.61 | $192.32 |
| 9.0% | $123.94 | $129.75 | $136.44 | $144.25 | $153.48 |
| 10.0% | $106.39 | $110.51 | $115.19 | $120.53 | $126.70 |
| 11.0% | $92.62 | $95.65 | $99.03 | $102.83 | $107.14 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions