What is Sirius XM Holdings Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $25.83 per share. The share price was $25.86 on September 25, 2026, 0% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -3.5% | 10.0% | $6.30 | -76% |
| Base | 1.5% | 9.0% | $25.83 | -0% |
| Bull | 6.5% | 8.0% | $63.87 | +147% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $39.47 | $43.57 | $48.59 | $54.85 | $62.91 |
| 8.0% | $29.34 | $32.00 | $35.14 | $38.92 | $43.53 |
| 9.0% | $21.91 | $23.73 | $25.83 | $28.28 | $31.17 |
| 10.0% | $16.24 | $17.53 | $19.00 | $20.67 | $22.61 |
| 11.0% | $11.76 | $12.71 | $13.77 | $14.96 | $16.31 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Sirius XM Holdings Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (1.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions