What is Selective Insurance Group Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Selective Insurance Group Inc's reported free cash flow gives $576.00 per share. The share price was $100.49 on November 9, 2026, 83% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $350.92 | +249% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $576.00 | +473% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $995.41 | +891% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $744.66 | $797.02 | $861.03 | $941.03 | $1,043.90 |
| 8.0% | $618.13 | $652.09 | $692.22 | $740.38 | $799.25 |
| 9.0% | $525.99 | $549.20 | $576.00 | $607.25 | $644.19 |
| 10.0% | $456.05 | $472.56 | $491.28 | $512.67 | $537.34 |
| 11.0% | $401.28 | $413.38 | $426.91 | $442.13 | $459.38 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Selective Insurance Group Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions