What is Shopify Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Shopify Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $52.08 per share. The share price was $142.25 on September 25, 2026, 173% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $32.14 | -77% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $52.08 | -63% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $89.21 | -37% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $67.18 | $71.89 | $77.64 | $84.83 | $94.08 |
| 8.0% | $55.84 | $58.89 | $62.50 | $66.83 | $72.12 |
| 9.0% | $47.59 | $49.67 | $52.08 | $54.89 | $58.21 |
| 10.0% | $41.33 | $42.82 | $44.50 | $46.42 | $48.64 |
| 11.0% | $36.44 | $37.52 | $38.74 | $40.11 | $41.66 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Shopify Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (31.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions