What is Shake Shack Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Shake Shack Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $46.04 per share. The share price was $55.55 on September 25, 2026, 21% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $28.53 | -49% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $46.04 | -17% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $78.64 | +42% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $59.29 | $63.43 | $68.48 | $74.79 | $82.91 |
| 8.0% | $49.34 | $52.02 | $55.18 | $58.99 | $63.63 |
| 9.0% | $42.09 | $43.93 | $46.04 | $48.51 | $51.42 |
| 10.0% | $36.60 | $37.90 | $39.38 | $41.07 | $43.02 |
| 11.0% | $32.30 | $33.26 | $34.32 | $35.53 | $36.89 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Shake Shack Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (22.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions