What is Star Group, L.P. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Star Group, L.P.'s reported free cash flow gives $24.15 per share. The share price was $12.83 on September 25, 2026, 47% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -1.0% | 10.0% | $13.32 | +4% |
| Base | 4.0% | 9.0% | $24.15 | +88% |
| Bull | 9.0% | 8.0% | $44.37 | +246% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $31.85 | $34.18 | $37.04 | $40.61 | $45.20 |
| 8.0% | $26.11 | $27.63 | $29.42 | $31.57 | $34.19 |
| 9.0% | $21.92 | $22.96 | $24.15 | $25.54 | $27.19 |
| 10.0% | $18.72 | $19.46 | $20.29 | $21.25 | $22.35 |
| 11.0% | $16.20 | $16.74 | $17.34 | $18.02 | $18.79 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Star Group, L.P.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (4.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions