What is Surgery Partners, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Surgery Partners, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $14.21 per share. The share price was $14.40 on September 25, 2026, 1% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | -$1.74 | -112% |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $14.21 | -1% |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $45.98 | +219% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $26.37 | $30.12 | $34.72 | $40.46 | $47.84 |
| 8.0% | $17.26 | $19.70 | $22.58 | $26.03 | $30.26 |
| 9.0% | $10.62 | $12.29 | $14.21 | $16.45 | $19.11 |
| 10.0% | $5.58 | $6.76 | $8.11 | $9.64 | $11.41 |
| 11.0% | $1.63 | $2.50 | $3.47 | $4.56 | $5.80 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Surgery Partners, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions