What is Southern First Bancshares Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Southern First Bancshares Inc's reported free cash flow gives $81.57 per share. The share price was $60.62 on September 25, 2026, 26% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -10.0% | 10.0% | $67.96 | +12% |
| Base | -5.0% | 9.0% | $81.57 | +35% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 8.0% | $106.95 | +76% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $90.63 | $93.29 | $96.55 | $100.62 | $105.85 |
| 8.0% | $83.95 | $85.68 | $87.72 | $90.17 | $93.16 |
| 9.0% | $79.03 | $80.21 | $81.57 | $83.16 | $85.04 |
| 10.0% | $75.25 | $76.09 | $77.04 | $78.13 | $79.38 |
| 11.0% | $72.25 | $72.87 | $73.55 | $74.33 | $75.21 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Southern First Bancshares Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-20.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions