What is Smithfield Foods Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Smithfield Foods Inc's reported free cash flow gives $23.50 per share. The share price was $19.36 on November 10, 2026, 18% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.5% | 10.0% | $13.90 | -28% |
| Base | 0.5% | 9.0% | $23.50 | +21% |
| Bull | 5.5% | 8.0% | $42.21 | +118% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $30.17 | $32.16 | $34.60 | $37.66 | $41.58 |
| 8.0% | $25.22 | $26.52 | $28.05 | $29.89 | $32.13 |
| 9.0% | $21.60 | $22.48 | $23.50 | $24.70 | $26.11 |
| 10.0% | $18.82 | $19.45 | $20.17 | $20.98 | $21.92 |
| 11.0% | $16.63 | $17.10 | $17.61 | $18.19 | $18.85 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Smithfield Foods Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 11 fiscal years (0.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions