What is Smithfield Foods Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Smithfield Foods Inc's reported free cash flow gives $23.94 per share. The share price was $19.04 on September 25, 2026, 20% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -4.5% | 10.0% | $14.33 | -25% |
| Base | 0.5% | 9.0% | $23.94 | +26% |
| Bull | 5.5% | 8.0% | $42.65 | +124% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $30.60 | $32.60 | $35.04 | $38.09 | $42.02 |
| 8.0% | $25.66 | $26.96 | $28.49 | $30.32 | $32.57 |
| 9.0% | $22.04 | $22.92 | $23.94 | $25.13 | $26.54 |
| 10.0% | $19.26 | $19.89 | $20.61 | $21.42 | $22.36 |
| 11.0% | $17.07 | $17.53 | $18.05 | $18.63 | $19.29 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Smithfield Foods Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 11 fiscal years (0.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions