What is Stifel Financial Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Stifel Financial Corp's reported free cash flow gives $256.26 per share. The share price was $70.35 on September 25, 2026, 73% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 5.5% | 10.0% | $164.56 | +134% |
| Base | 10.5% | 9.0% | $256.26 | +264% |
| Bull | 15.5% | 8.0% | $439.05 | +524% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $325.64 | $347.04 | $373.19 | $405.88 | $447.91 |
| 8.0% | $273.70 | $287.58 | $303.98 | $323.66 | $347.71 |
| 9.0% | $235.83 | $245.32 | $256.26 | $269.03 | $284.13 |
| 10.0% | $207.04 | $213.79 | $221.43 | $230.17 | $240.26 |
| 11.0% | $184.46 | $189.41 | $194.93 | $201.15 | $208.20 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Stifel Financial Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions