What is Septerna, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Septerna, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $83.78 per share. The share price was $37.77 on September 25, 2026, 55% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $51.66 | +37% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $83.78 | +122% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $143.60 | +280% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $108.11 | $115.69 | $124.96 | $136.55 | $151.44 |
| 8.0% | $89.83 | $94.75 | $100.57 | $107.54 | $116.07 |
| 9.0% | $76.54 | $79.90 | $83.78 | $88.31 | $93.66 |
| 10.0% | $66.46 | $68.85 | $71.56 | $74.66 | $78.23 |
| 11.0% | $58.57 | $60.33 | $62.29 | $64.49 | $66.99 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Septerna, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 1 fiscal years (30,331.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions