What is Scilex Holding Co worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Scilex Holding Co's reported free cash flow gives $6,202.81 per share. The share price was $4.89 on September 25, 2026, 100% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0.0% | 10.0% | $3,849.11 | +78,614% |
| Base | 5.0% | 9.0% | $6,202.81 | +126,747% |
| Bull | 10.0% | 8.0% | $10,597.38 | +216,615% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $7,886.92 | $8,399.51 | $9,026.00 | $9,809.12 | $10,815.98 |
| 8.0% | $6,631.36 | $6,963.77 | $7,356.62 | $7,828.04 | $8,404.21 |
| 9.0% | $5,713.29 | $5,940.57 | $6,202.81 | $6,508.76 | $6,870.33 |
| 10.0% | $5,013.42 | $5,175.04 | $5,358.22 | $5,567.56 | $5,809.11 |
| 11.0% | $4,462.69 | $4,581.18 | $4,713.61 | $4,862.59 | $5,031.44 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Scilex Holding Co's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (5.1% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions