What is Southern Copper Corp/ worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Southern Copper Corp/'s reported free cash flow gives $104.81 per share. The share price was $170.36 on November 10, 2026, 63% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $62.52 | -63% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $104.81 | -38% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $183.66 | +8% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $136.15 | $145.84 | $157.69 | $172.49 | $191.52 |
| 8.0% | $112.67 | $118.95 | $126.38 | $135.29 | $146.18 |
| 9.0% | $95.55 | $99.85 | $104.81 | $110.59 | $117.42 |
| 10.0% | $82.55 | $85.60 | $89.06 | $93.02 | $97.59 |
| 11.0% | $72.35 | $74.59 | $77.09 | $79.91 | $83.10 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Southern Copper Corp/'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (10.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions