What is Sonic Automotive Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Sonic Automotive Inc's reported free cash flow gives $431.87 per share. The share price was $64.95 on September 25, 2026, 85% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.0% | 10.0% | $245.19 | +278% |
| Base | 9.0% | 9.0% | $431.87 | +565% |
| Bull | 14.0% | 8.0% | $780.16 | +1,101% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $568.71 | $610.81 | $662.25 | $726.56 | $809.25 |
| 8.0% | $466.35 | $493.65 | $525.91 | $564.62 | $611.94 |
| 9.0% | $391.67 | $410.34 | $431.87 | $457.00 | $486.69 |
| 10.0% | $334.87 | $348.15 | $363.19 | $380.38 | $400.22 |
| 11.0% | $290.29 | $300.02 | $310.90 | $323.13 | $337.00 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Sonic Automotive Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions