What is Republic Services, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Republic Services, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $139.02 per share. The share price was $212.10 on September 25, 2026, 53% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 4.5% | 10.0% | $69.55 | -67% |
| Base | 9.5% | 9.0% | $139.02 | -34% |
| Bull | 14.5% | 8.0% | $277.51 | +31% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $191.27 | $207.35 | $227.00 | $251.57 | $283.15 |
| 8.0% | $152.18 | $162.61 | $174.93 | $189.72 | $207.79 |
| 9.0% | $123.67 | $130.79 | $139.02 | $148.62 | $159.96 |
| 10.0% | $101.98 | $107.05 | $112.79 | $119.36 | $126.94 |
| 11.0% | $84.95 | $88.67 | $92.83 | $97.50 | $102.79 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Republic Services, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (9.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions