What is Red Rock Resorts, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Red Rock Resorts, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $39.18 per share. The share price was $49.46 on November 10, 2026, 26% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $10.29 | -79% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $39.18 | -21% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $93.04 | +88% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $60.59 | $67.21 | $75.30 | $85.41 | $98.41 |
| 8.0% | $44.55 | $48.84 | $53.91 | $60.00 | $67.44 |
| 9.0% | $32.86 | $35.79 | $39.18 | $43.13 | $47.80 |
| 10.0% | $23.98 | $26.06 | $28.43 | $31.13 | $34.25 |
| 11.0% | $17.01 | $18.54 | $20.25 | $22.17 | $24.35 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Red Rock Resorts, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions