What is Red Rock Resorts, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Red Rock Resorts, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $40.64 per share. The share price was $50.76 on September 25, 2026, 25% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 6.0% | 10.0% | $11.76 | -77% |
| Base | 11.0% | 9.0% | $40.64 | -20% |
| Bull | 16.0% | 8.0% | $94.50 | +86% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $62.05 | $68.67 | $76.76 | $86.87 | $99.87 |
| 8.0% | $46.01 | $50.31 | $55.38 | $61.46 | $68.90 |
| 9.0% | $34.32 | $37.26 | $40.64 | $44.59 | $49.26 |
| 10.0% | $25.44 | $27.53 | $29.89 | $32.59 | $35.71 |
| 11.0% | $18.47 | $20.00 | $21.71 | $23.64 | $25.82 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Red Rock Resorts, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions