What is Ross Stores, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ross Stores, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $203.02 per share. The share price was $236.12 on September 25, 2026, 16% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.5% | 10.0% | $129.58 | -45% |
| Base | 12.5% | 9.0% | $203.02 | -14% |
| Bull | 17.5% | 8.0% | $349.36 | +48% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $259.21 | $276.62 | $297.90 | $324.50 | $358.70 |
| 8.0% | $217.08 | $228.38 | $241.72 | $257.73 | $277.30 |
| 9.0% | $186.40 | $194.12 | $203.02 | $213.42 | $225.70 |
| 10.0% | $163.09 | $168.58 | $174.81 | $181.92 | $190.12 |
| 11.0% | $144.84 | $148.86 | $153.36 | $158.42 | $164.15 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ross Stores, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (12.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions