What is Roku, Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Roku, Inc's reported free cash flow gives $118.01 per share. The share price was $152.68 on September 25, 2026, 29% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $76.91 | -50% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $118.01 | -23% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $194.54 | +27% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $149.13 | $158.83 | $170.69 | $185.51 | $204.57 |
| 8.0% | $125.75 | $132.04 | $139.48 | $148.40 | $159.31 |
| 9.0% | $108.74 | $113.05 | $118.01 | $123.80 | $130.65 |
| 10.0% | $95.85 | $98.91 | $102.37 | $106.34 | $110.91 |
| 11.0% | $85.76 | $88.00 | $90.50 | $93.33 | $96.52 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Roku, Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (21.6% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions