What is Rli Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Rli Corp's reported free cash flow gives $202.61 per share. The share price was $55.69 on September 25, 2026, 73% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 9.0% | 10.0% | $122.13 | +119% |
| Base | 14.0% | 9.0% | $202.61 | +264% |
| Bull | 19.0% | 8.0% | $352.53 | +533% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $263.23 | $282.10 | $305.15 | $333.97 | $371.03 |
| 8.0% | $217.72 | $229.95 | $244.41 | $261.76 | $282.96 |
| 9.0% | $184.59 | $192.96 | $202.61 | $213.87 | $227.17 |
| 10.0% | $159.46 | $165.41 | $172.15 | $179.86 | $188.74 |
| 11.0% | $139.79 | $144.15 | $149.02 | $154.51 | $160.72 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Rli Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions