What is Sturm Ruger & Co Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Sturm Ruger & Co Inc's reported free cash flow gives $32.47 per share. The share price was $42.81 on September 25, 2026, 32% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -6.0% | 10.0% | $21.06 | -51% |
| Base | -1.0% | 9.0% | $32.47 | -24% |
| Bull | 4.0% | 8.0% | $53.79 | +26% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $40.32 | $42.66 | $45.52 | $49.10 | $53.70 |
| 8.0% | $34.50 | $36.02 | $37.82 | $39.97 | $42.60 |
| 9.0% | $30.24 | $31.28 | $32.47 | $33.87 | $35.52 |
| 10.0% | $26.97 | $27.71 | $28.55 | $29.50 | $30.61 |
| 11.0% | $24.39 | $24.93 | $25.54 | $26.22 | $26.99 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Sturm Ruger & Co Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-0.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions