What is REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp's reported free cash flow gives $43.37 per share.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 7.0% | 10.0% | $27.95 | - |
| Base | 12.0% | 9.0% | $43.37 | - |
| Bull | 17.0% | 8.0% | $74.10 | - |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $55.13 | $58.76 | $63.21 | $68.76 | $75.90 |
| 8.0% | $46.32 | $48.68 | $51.46 | $54.81 | $58.89 |
| 9.0% | $39.90 | $41.51 | $43.37 | $45.54 | $48.11 |
| 10.0% | $35.02 | $36.17 | $37.47 | $38.95 | $40.67 |
| 11.0% | $31.20 | $32.04 | $32.98 | $34.04 | $35.23 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (11.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions