What is TheRealReal, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on TheRealReal, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $6.33 per share. The share price was $14.91 on November 10, 2026, 136% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $4.28 | -71% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $6.33 | -58% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $10.13 | -32% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $7.87 | $8.36 | $8.95 | $9.68 | $10.63 |
| 8.0% | $6.71 | $7.03 | $7.39 | $7.84 | $8.38 |
| 9.0% | $5.87 | $6.08 | $6.33 | $6.62 | $6.96 |
| 10.0% | $5.23 | $5.38 | $5.55 | $5.75 | $5.97 |
| 11.0% | $4.72 | $4.84 | $4.96 | $5.10 | $5.26 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at TheRealReal, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (18.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions