What is Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd's reported free cash flow gives $70.56 per share. The share price was $339.85 on November 10, 2026, 382% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $12.07 | -96% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $70.56 | -79% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $179.45 | -47% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $114.84 | $128.64 | $145.52 | $166.61 | $193.73 |
| 8.0% | $81.57 | $90.53 | $101.11 | $113.80 | $129.32 |
| 9.0% | $57.37 | $63.49 | $70.56 | $78.80 | $88.54 |
| 10.0% | $39.02 | $43.37 | $48.31 | $53.95 | $60.45 |
| 11.0% | $24.66 | $27.85 | $31.42 | $35.43 | $39.98 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (52.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions