What is Rubrik, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Rubrik, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $44.71 per share. The share price was $109.55 on September 25, 2026, 145% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $28.00 | -74% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $44.71 | -59% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $75.83 | -31% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $57.36 | $61.31 | $66.13 | $72.16 | $79.91 |
| 8.0% | $47.86 | $50.42 | $53.44 | $57.07 | $61.51 |
| 9.0% | $40.94 | $42.69 | $44.71 | $47.07 | $49.85 |
| 10.0% | $35.70 | $36.94 | $38.35 | $39.96 | $41.82 |
| 11.0% | $31.60 | $32.51 | $33.53 | $34.67 | $35.97 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Rubrik, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 3 fiscal years (29.9% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions