What is Roblox Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Roblox Corp's reported free cash flow gives $64.91 per share. The share price was $46.44 on September 25, 2026, 28% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $39.43 | -15% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $64.91 | +40% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $112.36 | +142% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $84.20 | $90.22 | $97.57 | $106.76 | $118.58 |
| 8.0% | $69.71 | $73.61 | $78.22 | $83.75 | $90.51 |
| 9.0% | $59.17 | $61.83 | $64.91 | $68.50 | $72.74 |
| 10.0% | $51.17 | $53.07 | $55.22 | $57.67 | $60.51 |
| 11.0% | $44.91 | $46.30 | $47.86 | $49.61 | $51.59 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Roblox Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (51.7% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions