What is Ryder System Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ryder System Inc's reported free cash flow gives $73.44 per share. The share price was $235.57 on September 25, 2026, 221% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | -$19.55 | -108% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $73.44 | -69% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $258.83 | +10% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $142.97 | $164.31 | $190.39 | $222.99 | $264.91 |
| 8.0% | $91.00 | $104.84 | $121.19 | $140.82 | $164.80 |
| 9.0% | $53.06 | $62.52 | $73.44 | $86.18 | $101.23 |
| 10.0% | $24.19 | $30.92 | $38.55 | $47.26 | $57.32 |
| 11.0% | $1.52 | $6.45 | $11.97 | $18.17 | $25.20 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ryder System Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions