What is Ryder System Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Ryder System Inc's reported free cash flow gives $78.96 per share. The share price was $280.71 on November 10, 2026, 255% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 3.5% | 10.0% | -$14.02 | -105% |
| Base | 8.5% | 9.0% | $78.96 | -72% |
| Bull | 13.5% | 8.0% | $264.35 | -6% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $148.49 | $169.84 | $195.92 | $228.52 | $270.44 |
| 8.0% | $96.52 | $110.36 | $126.72 | $146.34 | $170.33 |
| 9.0% | $58.59 | $68.05 | $78.96 | $91.70 | $106.76 |
| 10.0% | $29.72 | $36.45 | $44.07 | $52.79 | $62.84 |
| 11.0% | $7.05 | $11.98 | $17.49 | $23.70 | $30.73 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Ryder System Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (8.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions