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Stocks QXO DCF valuation

DCF valuation

What is QXO, Inc. worth?

With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on QXO, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $4.56 per share. The share price was $12.43 on September 25, 2026, 172% above that value.

Inputs from the filings

Free cash flow, fiscal 2025
$183.2M
Average free cash flow, last 5 years
$54.1M
Cash
$2.77B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Debt
$6.03B
balance sheet of June 30, 2026
Diluted shares, fiscal 2025
613,000,000
Revenue growth per year, last 5 years
178.0%

Three sets of assumptions

CaseGrowth yrs 1-5Growth yrs 6-10After year 10Discount rateValue per shareValue vs price
Bear10.0%6.0%2.0%10.0%$0.69-94%
Base15.0%9.0%2.5%9.0%$4.56-63%
Bull20.0%11.5%3.0%8.0%$11.78-5%

Sensitivity: base case value per share

Discount rate down the side, growth after year 10 across the top. Everything else as in the base case.

1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
7.0%$7.50$8.41$9.53$10.93$12.72
8.0%$5.29$5.89$6.59$7.43$8.46
9.0%$3.69$4.10$4.56$5.11$5.76
10.0%$2.47$2.76$3.09$3.46$3.89
11.0%$1.52$1.73$1.97$2.24$2.54

Where the presets come from

Base: years 1 to 5 grow at QXO, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (178.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.

Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.

Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.

This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.

Adjust the assumptions

Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.

Adjust the assumptions

QXO, Inc. company page