What is Qualys, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Qualys, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $252.67 per share. The share price was $172.43 on September 25, 2026, 32% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 8.0% | 10.0% | $156.58 | -9% |
| Base | 13.0% | 9.0% | $252.67 | +47% |
| Bull | 18.0% | 8.0% | $431.74 | +150% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $324.68 | $347.04 | $374.36 | $408.52 | $452.44 |
| 8.0% | $270.66 | $285.16 | $302.29 | $322.85 | $347.99 |
| 9.0% | $231.32 | $241.23 | $252.67 | $266.02 | $281.79 |
| 10.0% | $201.46 | $208.51 | $216.50 | $225.63 | $236.17 |
| 11.0% | $178.08 | $183.25 | $189.02 | $195.52 | $202.89 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Qualys, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (13.0% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions