What is Papa Johns International Inc worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Papa Johns International Inc's reported free cash flow gives $9.25 per share. The share price was $19.55 on September 25, 2026, 111% above that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -2.0% | 10.0% | -$2.32 | -112% |
| Base | 3.0% | 9.0% | $9.25 | -53% |
| Bull | 8.0% | 8.0% | $30.86 | +58% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $17.42 | $19.90 | $22.92 | $26.70 | $31.56 |
| 8.0% | $11.34 | $12.95 | $14.84 | $17.12 | $19.90 |
| 9.0% | $6.89 | $7.99 | $9.25 | $10.73 | $12.47 |
| 10.0% | $3.49 | $4.27 | $5.15 | $6.16 | $7.33 |
| 11.0% | $0.81 | $1.38 | $2.02 | $2.74 | $3.56 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Papa Johns International Inc's revenue growth rate over the last 4 fiscal years (3.2% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions