What is Pattern Group Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Pattern Group Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $25.68 per share. The share price was $17.02 on September 25, 2026, 34% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $16.78 | -1% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $25.68 | +51% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $42.25 | +148% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $32.42 | $34.52 | $37.09 | $40.30 | $44.42 |
| 8.0% | $27.36 | $28.72 | $30.33 | $32.26 | $34.62 |
| 9.0% | $23.68 | $24.61 | $25.68 | $26.94 | $28.42 |
| 10.0% | $20.88 | $21.55 | $22.30 | $23.16 | $24.15 |
| 11.0% | $18.70 | $19.19 | $19.73 | $20.34 | $21.03 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Pattern Group Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 2 fiscal years (35.3% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions