What is Peloton Interactive, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $8.84 per share. The share price was $5.73 on November 10, 2026, 35% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -10.0% | 10.0% | $5.63 | -2% |
| Base | -5.0% | 9.0% | $8.84 | +54% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 8.0% | $14.85 | +159% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $10.99 | $11.62 | $12.39 | $13.35 | $14.59 |
| 8.0% | $9.41 | $9.82 | $10.30 | $10.88 | $11.59 |
| 9.0% | $8.24 | $8.52 | $8.84 | $9.22 | $9.67 |
| 10.0% | $7.35 | $7.55 | $7.77 | $8.03 | $8.33 |
| 11.0% | $6.64 | $6.79 | $6.95 | $7.13 | $7.34 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-9.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions