What is Peloton Interactive, Inc. worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s reported free cash flow gives $8.53 per share. The share price was $4.92 on September 25, 2026, 42% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | -10.0% | 10.0% | $5.31 | +8% |
| Base | -5.0% | 9.0% | $8.53 | +73% |
| Bull | 0.0% | 8.0% | $14.53 | +195% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $10.67 | $11.30 | $12.07 | $13.03 | $14.27 |
| 8.0% | $9.09 | $9.50 | $9.98 | $10.56 | $11.27 |
| 9.0% | $7.93 | $8.21 | $8.53 | $8.90 | $9.35 |
| 10.0% | $7.03 | $7.23 | $7.46 | $7.71 | $8.01 |
| 11.0% | $6.32 | $6.47 | $6.63 | $6.82 | $7.02 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Peloton Interactive, Inc.'s revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (-9.5% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions