What is Primoris Services Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Primoris Services Corp's reported free cash flow gives $194.69 per share. The share price was $69.88 on November 10, 2026, 64% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $114.14 | +63% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $194.69 | +179% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $344.69 | +393% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $255.68 | $274.70 | $297.94 | $327.00 | $364.35 |
| 8.0% | $209.86 | $222.20 | $236.77 | $254.26 | $275.64 |
| 9.0% | $176.53 | $184.96 | $194.69 | $206.04 | $219.46 |
| 10.0% | $151.25 | $157.25 | $164.05 | $171.81 | $180.77 |
| 11.0% | $131.48 | $135.87 | $140.78 | $146.31 | $152.58 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Primoris Services Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (16.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions