What is Primoris Services Corp worth?
With the base-case assumptions below, a discounted cash flow model on Primoris Services Corp's reported free cash flow gives $194.73 per share. The share price was $72.65 on September 25, 2026, 63% below that value.
Inputs from the filings
Three sets of assumptions
| Case | Growth yrs 1-5 | Discount rate | Value per share | Value vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 10.0% | 10.0% | $114.17 | +57% |
| Base | 15.0% | 9.0% | $194.73 | +168% |
| Bull | 20.0% | 8.0% | $344.73 | +375% |
Sensitivity: base case value per share
| 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $255.72 | $274.73 | $297.98 | $327.03 | $364.39 |
| 8.0% | $209.90 | $222.23 | $236.81 | $254.30 | $275.67 |
| 9.0% | $176.57 | $185.00 | $194.73 | $206.08 | $219.49 |
| 10.0% | $151.29 | $157.29 | $164.08 | $171.85 | $180.81 |
| 11.0% | $131.51 | $135.91 | $140.82 | $146.35 | $152.61 |
Where the presets come from
Base: years 1 to 5 grow at Primoris Services Corp's revenue growth rate over the last 5 fiscal years (16.8% a year), held between -5% and 15%. Years 6 to 10 grow halfway between that and the long-run rate of 2.5%. Future cash is discounted at 9% a year.
Bear: 5 points less growth, 2% long-run growth, 10% discount rate. Bull: 5 points more growth (at most 25%), 3% long-run growth, 8% discount rate.
Value per share = (present value of 10 years of free cash flow + present value of everything after + cash - debt) / diluted shares.
This is a model run on assumptions, not a recommendation or a price target. Small changes in the discount rate or growth move the result a lot, as the table above shows. Change them yourself in the calculator.
Adjust the assumptions
Move the sliders for growth, long-run growth and discount rate, or switch to average free cash flow, and see the value per share change.
Adjust the assumptions